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Understanding Lay Bets and Liability

Lay Bets and Liability

 

To Lay a bet is to bet that an event will not happen. For example, to Lay Hammarby to win their match versus AIK is to back them not to win, so you would win your bet if they either lose or draw their match versus AIK.

 

Laying a bet is made possible with exchanges such as Betfair and Smarkets. When you sign up to wager with an exchange, you accept odds placed by members of the public. Exchanges have no interest in whether the Back bet or Lay Bet win as their profit comes from a small commission collected on the winnings.

 

When you wager with an exchange, you are playing the role of the bookmaker and as with bookmakers, all you can win is the stake. Liability is the amount you could lose should the Back Bet win and so this is locked away by the exchange until the event is complete.

 

 

Lay Betting Terms

 

Lay stake: This is the amount you want to win. Let’s say that your backer’s stake in the lay bet example above was 100kr. Because you layed Hammarby, you will win 100kr (minus commission, explained below) if AIK wins or the match ends in a draw.

 

Commission: Exchanges such as Betfair and Smarkets charge a commission on your winnings. This percentage is by default 6.5% at Betfair, but the more you turn over at Betfair, the more discount on the commission you receive.

 

Lay odds: This is the odds of your lay bet. The higher the odds are, the higher the risk (liability) will be.

 

Liability: The liability of a lay bet is correlated with the stake and odds. A selection where the backer’s odds are 5.0 means that if you lose your lay bet you will lose 4 times your stake.  At 2.0 odds you would lose an amount equal to your stake and so on.

 

Matched/Unmatched: As with any exchange, you place your bets at Betfair/Smarkets against other Betfair/Smarkets customers, not against Betfair or Smarkets itself. Therefore, there must always be a backer and a layer for any bets made. If there is a backer for your lay bet, your bet will be matched. Once a bet is matched it cannot be cancelled, other than by Betfair. If your bet has not been matched, or only partially matched, you can either; cancel your unmatched bet, leave your bet unmatched and hope that it is matched before the event starts, or accept the remaining unmatched portion of the bet at worse odds.

Licensed Bookmakers in Sweden

The Sweden gambling regulations that came into effect at the start of 2019 greatly reduced the number of bookmakers available to Swedish players. Although it does mean that we can no longer take advantage of the generous sign up and ongoing bonuses offered by offshore bookmakers, it has resulted in a much safer environment with better protection for players.

 

 

Below is a list of every domain that has been licensed to run gambling activities online in Sweden. As you can see from the list, there are still quite a few domains that have been registered and licensed that aren’t yet live. There are also a large number of applications still pending so hopefully the market and competition will increase over time.

 

DomainCompanyLiveBonus
888sport.se888 Sweden LtdYes500% up to 500 kr
atg.seAB Trav and GaloppYesN/A
betfair.seBetfair International PlcYes100% up to 1000 kr
bethard.seBethardGroup LtdYes100% up to 1000 kr
inandoutbet.comBethardGroup LtdNoN/A
scandibet.comBethardGroup LtdNoN/A
nightrush.comBethardGroup LtdYesN/A
betive.comBethardGroup LtdYesN/A
fastbet.comBethardGroup LtdYesN/A
bettoday.comBethardGroup LtdNoN/A
betsson.comBetsson Nordic LtdYes100% up to 1000 kr
betway.seBetway LtdYes100% up to 1000 kr
10bet.seBlue Star Planet LtdYes100% up to 500 kr
betsafe.comBS Nordic LtdYes100% up to 500 kr
cherrycasino.comCherry Casino Sweden LtdYesN/A
comeon.comComeOn Sweden LtdYes500% up to 500 kr
bwin.seElectraWorks LtdYes100% up to 250 kr
optibet.seEnlabs ABNoN/A
bestbet.comEnlabs ABNoN/A
redbet.comEvoke Gaming LtdNoN/A
williamhill.seEvoke Gaming LtdYes1000 kr Free Bet
expekt.seExpekt Nordics LtdYes100% up to 500 kr
fsport.netFSport ABNoN/A
hajper.comHajper LtdYes100% up to 1000 kr
speedybet.comHero Gaming LtdYes100% up to 2000 kr
bet365.comHillside (sports) ENCYes1000 kr Free Bet
interwetten.seInterwetten Gaming LtdYesN/A
legolas.betLegolas Invest LtdYes50% up to 2500 kr
leovegas.comLeoVegas Gaming PlcYes100% up to 1000 kr
noaccountbet.comMandalorian Technologies LtdYesN/A
mrgreen.comMr Green LtdYes100% profitboost
nordicbet.comNGG Nordic LtdYes100% up to 1000 kr
paf.comPAF Consulting PlcYes100% up to 100 kr
pixel.betPixel Digital LtdNoN/A
coolbet.comPolar LtdYes100% up to 500 kr
prontoodds.comPremiergaming LtdNoN/A
snabbare.comFaster LtdYesN/A
unibet.seSpooniker LtdYes100% up to 2000 kr
spela.svenskaspel.seSvenska Spel Sport ABYesN/A
yobetit.seYobetit.comYes150% up to 1500 kr
guts.comZecure Gaming LtdNoN/A

 

 

Sports Betting in Sweden: 5 Best Ways To Make Money from Bookmakers.

Before You Start

 

I’m going to start this article with a warning. I’m going to teach you about a variety of betting systems. Some of these can be utilised to create a guaranteed profit. Others identify a value bet which gives you a small but consistent edge over the bookmaker. Gambling can be very addictive. While these systems have been proven to be profitable, it does take discipline as well as good bankroll management.

 

If you have a tendency to gamble then these may not be for you. I use all these systems myself to varying degrees. Although it’s not going to make you a millionaire overnight, it will provide a steady income with the right dedication. Any money you make from bookmakers is also tax free. With that out of the way, here are the five best ways to earn money from sportsbetting in Sweden:

 

1. Matched Betting

 

By far the most popular system, due to its simplicity, large profits and virtually risk free nature. Thousands of people make money from matched betting across the world and it has been mentioned in many respected publications. Sign up for a bookmaker and accept their deposit bonus. By placing bets that cover all outcomes of an event you can turn the bonus money into profit. Currently in Sweden, there’s over 20 000 kr worth of sign up bonuses. If you follow the instructions carefully, will give you a profit of at least 15 000 kr. At profitclub.se we’ll provide you with all the instructions and tools you need without ever charging you a subscription.

 

How To Get Started::

 

  • Use the completely free in-depth guides, tutorials and oddsmatcher at Profitclub.se. Start Here.
  • Send an email to jon@profitclub.se if you want to join our free private Slack group.

 

 

2. Value Betting:

 

 

Value Betting is placing bets on an outcome at higher odds than the actual probability of the outcome. A quick example would be if you were betting on a coin toss. There is a 50/50 chance of either heads or tails. With no bookmaker margin, the odds on either heads or tails is 2.0. If we were then offered odds of 2.1, this would be considered a value bet. There’s a good chance this bet will still lose and it’s possible you could lose 7 or 8 times out of 10. Place the same bet many times and your profit will start to increase roughly in line with the Expected Value. This is why casinos can make so much money from Blackjack even though the house edge is only around 0.5%.

 

Whilst the theory is straightforward, the reality is that finding genuine value bets can be tricky. You need to either have an in-depth knowledge of particular markets or the ability to analyse detailed statistics. Thankfully, there are various tools available that quickly and easily identify value bets for you. The best one that we’ve come across so far is the RebelBetting ValueBetting software. Their software provides a constant feed of value bets and their bookmaker integration makes it incredibly fast to place the bets. It also includes a BetTracker which shows all your bets and your current profit compared to the Expected Value. They also have bankroll management built into their software which will help to decrease the risks involved.

 

To try out the full version of the software for free for two weeks, sign up with this link. The main advantage of the ValueBetting software is that you can place a large volume of bets very quickly. The more bets you place the closer your profit should be to the Expected Value. On the negative side, it’s not guaranteed profit and you will have bad weekends when results go against you. There is also a risk that bookmakers may restrict your stake if you become too profitable. This appears to be less of an issue since the new regulations. It’s also possible to reduce the risk by sticking with certain markets or betting patterns.

 

The Rebelbetting software doesn’t include all the Swedish licensed bookmakers but does include enough to make it worthwhile. These are the Swedish bookmakers that are included in the software: 888Sport, ATG, Bet365, Betfair, Bethard, Betsafe, Betsson, Bwin, CasinoStugan, Comeon, Expekt, Interwetten, LeoVegas, NordicBet, PAF, Scandibet, Snabbare, SpeedyBet, Unibet and Williamhill.

 

A ValueBetting subscription also includes a mobile version of the software. This is probably the best betting app you will ever have on your phone. It provides a constant stream of value bets and enables you to place them quickly with the bookmaker.

 

UPDATE: RebelBetting now have Svenskaspel odds included in their software. This is a major development for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Svenskaspel have way more competitive odds since the gambling market was regulated. Most importantly, they will not restrict you.

 

How To Get Started::

 

  • Learn more about the RebelBetting ValueBetting software here:
  • Send an email to jon@profitclub.se if you want to join our (free) private Slack group and see my real-life results.

 

 

3. Arbitrage Betting

 

Arbitrage betting is the process of betting on all outcomes of an event to guarantee a profit. Gambling is a hugely competitive business and as such bookmakers constantly adjust their odds. As bookmakers have different methods and approaches for updating odds they can often vary greatly. This leads to frequent arbitrage situations. Calculate the correct stake for the given odds and we can place bets that will be profitable whatever the result.

 

There are many sites that offer a free arbitrage betting calculator. Identifying these bets yourself is incredibly time consuming. It is also risky as the odds can change very quickly. The RebelBetting SureBets software feeds you a constant stream of arbitrage bets. It also provides integration with the bookmakers so that you can place bets quickly.

 

How To Get Started::

 

4. Oddsboosts

 

Oddsboosts are where bookmakers give you hugely improved odds usually for big games. The status of oddsboosts is a little unclear since the new regulations came into effect. Currently, it appears that they fall outside the scope of ongoing bonuses so they are offered from time to time. Expekt, Snabbare, Betway have all offered oddsboosts recently although the stake amount will be restricted, usually to 50 or 100 kr.

 

With oddsboosts we have two choices. We can make a small but guaranteed profit by laying the bet at a betting exchange. Alternatively, it can be more profitable in the long term by placing the bet and treating it as a value bet. Bookmakers in Sweden may start to offer more oddsboosts if they see it is as a way of keeping players interested whilst keeping within the rules. On the other hand, they could well be stopped altogether.

 

How To Get Started::

 

  • Follow out twitter account for all the latest oddsboosts and new sign up offers.

5. EachWay Sniping

 

An Each Way bet splits your stake into two. 50% of your stake is placed on a win. The other 50% is placed on your horse finishing in one of the predetermined positions. Generally this is either in the top 3 or 4 depending on the number of runners. The odds on the position are usually a third or a quarter of the win odds.

 

Horse racing odds change very quickly. When one or two horses become strong favourites their odds decrease. This creates artificially high odds for some of the outsiders. An each way bet doesn’t differentiate between a horse finishing in 2nd, 3rd or even 4th. This creates a value bet situation that we can take advantage of.

 

EachWay sniping works on small margins. It is possible to lay the each way bet and guarantee a profit. This can be risky as odds can change while placing the bets. By laying the bets at an exchange you will also have to factor in the bookmaker commission. A much quicker (but also riskier) method is to place value each way bets when they come up without laying them. Just as with Value Betting, this can lead to long periods of losses. Over time and with enough bets, you will be profitable especially if you utilise good bank roll management and stake sizing.

 

Finding your own eachway value bets is incredibly time consuming. Thankfully, Oddsmonkey have an excellent each way matcher which will pick out all the positive value each way bets for you.

 

How To Get Started::

 

  • Find out more about EachWay Sniping here.
  • Use this link to sign up with Oddsmonkey and access their EachWay Matcher. Their site is mainly focused on the UK and Ireland but their tools and matchers are invaluable.

Free Guide to Matched Betting in Sweden

 

Matched Betting is a technique whereby we cover all outcomes of an event in order to extract profit from the bonuses and incentives offered by bookmakers. This became possible with the creation of betting exchanges. These betting exchanges allow users to both set their own odds and accept odds offered by other people. Rather than rely on a built in margin in their bets to make a profit, they take a percentage of any winning bet. The key aspect of this is that as well as betting for a specific outcome to happen, we are also able to bet against a specific outcome (known as a LAY bet).

 

 

Typically in Sweden, if we sign up and deposit 1000kr with a bookmaker they will give us an extra 1000kr bonus. Using Matched Betting, we will place 2 bets. The first bet for a specific outcome with the bookmaker and the second bet against the same outcome with the Exchange. This way, whatever happens these 2 bets will cancel each other out and when the event is settled you’ll still have the same amount of money but it will either all be with the bookmaker or all with the Exchange (depending on what side of the bet wins). If they money is all in the Exchange then the 2000kr (your deposit + the bonus money) is yours to keep. If the bet wins with the bookmaker, you generally have to place 2 or 3 more bets before you can withdraw but as long as you keep covering all outcomes, you’ll soon be able to withdraw your original deposit plus the bonus money.

 

 

This is the ideal scenario. In reality, bookmakers are aware that exchanges exist and scan them constantly so it can be difficult to find 2 bets that will cancel each other out exactly. However, with the oddsmatching software we have at Profitclub.se we constantly scan all bookmakers and exchanges to find matches. These will usually give you a guaranteed return of 95% or more on every bet, whatever the result. As half your balance is bonus money given to you by the bookmaker losing 5% on each bet still allows you to take a large percentage as profit, even if you have to do 2 or 3 bets before you can withdraw.

 

 

Matched Betting in Sweden experienced big changes in 2019 thanks to the new betting laws that came into force. These new regulations require every operator to obtain a license from Spelinspektion to be able to offer their services in Sweden. Once licensed they are subject to Swedish taxation and strict rules concerning player protection. After the initial sign up bonus, bookmakers are not permitted to offer any ongoing bonuses. These include deposit bonuses, free bets, free spins. It appears that bookmakers can still offer odds boosts although the rules concerning these is not clear. Another side effect of the regulations is that currently Betfair are the only licensed betting exchange. Previously, you had the option of using Smarkets who only charged 2% commission on winning bets whereas Betfair charge 5% (this has at least come down from the slightly unreasonable 6.5% that they previously charged). Smarkets have applied for a Swedish license but to date there has been no decision. The restrictions on unlicensed bookmakers are unfortunate from a matched betting perspective but there are still plenty of ways that we can continue to earn a regular income from bookmakers and at least now we can do it in a far safer and more secure environment.

 

 

From a matched betting perspective the regulations have greatly decreased the number of sign up bonuses available and eliminated the ongoing profitability of reload bonuses. On the plus side, there are still many sign up offers available and most of the bookmakers will allow you to do these again even if you claimed the bonus before the new regulations came into effect. There are no longer the inherent risks involved with dealing with Curacao licensed bookmakers. Perhaps most importantly, any income from bookmakers is still tax-free as long as the bookmaker has a Swedish licence.

 

 

Despite the lack of “reload” bonuses, there are still plenty of opportunities to continue to make money from bookmakers. Every bookmaker has to constantly update their odds for a huge range of events and markets. This leads to regular inconsistencies in the prices that they offer. Advanced value betting and arbitrage tools and software are available that enable you to exploit these inconsistencies. However, there are dangers. Online gambling sites are designed to draw you in and keep you gambling. With Matched Betting it is extremely important to resist any temptation to gamble. Although you might win in the short term, it won’t create value in the long term. As long as you’re disciplined, willing to learn and stick to the principles and techniques that sites like ours will teach you, you’ll be able to earn yourself a long term regular income with just a few hours a month.

 

 

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